* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 20 21 23 28 33 38 42 47 51 56 59 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 23 24 25 26 27 27 33 32 29 27 27 33 35 38 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 23 24 25 26 27 27 30 32 27 27 27 33 38 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 15 17 20 18 15 7 2 6 4 12 8 11 19 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 2 3 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 -6 -5 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 309 305 283 284 288 273 272 244 178 176 121 148 124 72 65 82 87 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.5 28.0 28.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 148 148 146 148 145 145 146 149 147 151 145 137 146 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 138 140 141 138 140 135 133 135 141 141 147 143 134 143 150 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.6 -53.9 -54.4 -53.7 -54.2 -53.3 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 5 4 6 4 7 5 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 77 80 80 81 81 83 82 84 83 82 80 81 83 84 88 90 90 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 82 94 100 101 115 99 100 91 89 94 111 120 135 130 127 109 200 MB DIV 70 89 93 69 72 102 90 97 74 71 49 64 68 95 99 115 132 700-850 TADV 5 4 2 0 1 0 0 3 2 3 0 7 2 -6 3 3 3 LAND (KM) 11 -47 -95 -140 -157 -160 -158 -49 35 -5 -123 -198 -15 51 201 366 477 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.3 16.2 16.7 16.8 16.6 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.1 84.5 84.9 85.4 86.1 86.6 87.1 87.6 88.4 89.8 91.8 94.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 8 10 12 13 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 21 19 32 29 10 5 21 21 23 19 6 15 10 8 22 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 27. 31. 36. 39. 41. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 83.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 8.9% 3.6% 2.7% 0.8% 8.0% 17.5% 68.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.8% Consensus: 0.6% 3.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 2.7% 5.8% 24.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/15/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 23 24 25 26 27 27 33 32 29 27 27 33 35 38 40 18HR AGO 20 19 22 23 24 25 26 26 32 31 28 26 26 32 34 37 39 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 19 20 20 26 25 22 20 20 26 28 31 33 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT