* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/15/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 22 25 30 35 40 43 46 50 55 62 64 61 61 V (KT) LAND 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 32 30 28 27 32 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 21 24 25 26 27 27 27 30 27 27 27 31 36 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 20 18 22 20 25 15 11 7 6 8 8 5 5 5 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 2 0 0 -5 -5 -2 0 1 0 0 -1 -4 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 296 310 305 286 286 282 271 259 247 184 207 159 184 101 122 91 99 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 29.7 29.0 28.0 27.8 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 148 149 149 149 153 148 147 148 147 163 151 136 134 122 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 142 142 142 141 143 138 136 136 136 154 142 127 126 115 118 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 6 5 7 6 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 77 78 79 81 80 83 83 84 86 82 81 81 81 81 83 81 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 14 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 84 81 86 89 105 107 97 99 96 102 103 104 106 116 104 118 200 MB DIV 101 105 89 106 56 110 125 101 96 108 58 57 66 61 21 33 69 700-850 TADV 2 5 3 3 1 0 -2 1 2 5 0 9 8 4 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 53 -16 -87 -145 -181 -160 -163 -98 -20 43 -64 -138 -44 38 -9 -221 -113 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 83.8 84.4 84.9 85.3 86.2 86.8 87.3 87.5 88.0 88.8 90.2 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 8 9 9 10 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 20 30 30 7 5 23 23 23 24 5 22 8 9 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 44. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. -2. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 30. 35. 42. 44. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 83.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/15/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 27.0% 16.5% 15.6% 5.3% 11.4% 17.8% 62.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 6.5% Consensus: 2.0% 9.1% 5.5% 5.2% 1.8% 3.8% 5.9% 23.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/15/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/15/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 32 30 28 27 32 30 28 27 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 27 32 30 28 27 32 30 28 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 20 21 21 21 26 24 22 21 26 24 22 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT