* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 24 26 30 37 38 41 45 49 53 55 56 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 28 27 32 28 27 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 23 24 26 26 27 27 30 27 27 27 31 28 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 25 23 24 30 20 19 12 7 10 8 11 3 7 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 1 -1 2 -1 -2 -7 -1 3 -3 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 285 293 300 298 291 305 277 268 254 225 176 183 169 59 85 83 92 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.4 29.1 27.9 26.9 27.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 150 150 150 152 151 151 148 147 158 154 136 124 129 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 143 145 144 143 143 141 139 137 136 149 146 129 117 123 153 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 5 4 5 4 7 5 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 79 79 79 83 82 83 84 84 83 85 81 80 78 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 10 13 12 13 12 12 11 9 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 89 89 93 82 88 97 114 94 99 99 104 93 109 99 112 103 105 200 MB DIV 102 113 127 106 102 76 129 114 100 66 92 69 63 64 50 64 82 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 5 2 0 0 1 2 1 4 1 8 -3 1 0 8 LAND (KM) 106 26 -53 -135 -173 -106 -101 -134 -52 43 -32 -167 -33 30 -95 -161 69 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.2 17.2 17.9 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.4 84.1 84.8 85.4 86.6 87.3 87.7 87.7 87.8 88.5 89.8 91.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 8 11 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 23 23 29 20 16 15 26 22 23 5 23 8 2 2 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 43. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 17. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. 35. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 82.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 28.2% 16.8% 12.8% 3.6% 7.0% 10.0% 49.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.9% Consensus: 1.5% 9.4% 5.6% 4.3% 1.2% 2.3% 3.4% 17.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/15/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 21 23 25 26 26 27 27 30 30 28 27 32 28 27 31 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 24 24 25 25 28 28 26 25 30 26 25 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 21 21 22 22 25 25 23 22 27 23 22 26 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT