* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 23 24 26 30 34 40 45 49 53 58 61 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 34 32 28 34 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 23 26 26 27 27 27 31 31 28 34 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 21 25 25 29 19 20 13 7 1 4 4 6 8 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 1 0 -1 0 -4 -4 0 4 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 308 293 295 301 301 304 297 293 309 301 25 228 218 324 18 80 118 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.5 28.2 28.6 29.7 28.3 27.0 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 149 149 147 145 149 152 143 139 145 165 143 126 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 140 144 143 139 135 140 144 134 130 137 161 139 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 5 4 5 3 5 4 6 5 7 7 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 79 79 80 83 85 86 86 84 81 80 78 77 77 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 11 12 12 14 15 16 16 16 15 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 94 89 95 83 89 116 124 104 106 103 99 97 108 107 90 48 200 MB DIV 99 115 108 130 96 85 155 154 137 76 81 37 47 62 52 27 14 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 5 4 0 -1 -1 3 6 4 -2 5 -10 -5 0 7 LAND (KM) 164 85 0 -79 -148 -95 -89 -114 -157 -16 127 -21 -30 108 -63 -288 -186 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.3 15.6 17.1 18.2 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.9 83.7 84.4 85.0 85.9 86.4 86.6 86.7 86.5 87.0 88.4 90.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 5 4 3 4 6 7 8 10 13 15 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 18 22 33 20 18 20 5 19 16 21 34 11 4 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 39. 43. 44. 45. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. -15. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 38. 41. 37. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 82.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 17.6% 9.6% 7.7% 1.9% 5.8% 11.3% 43.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 1.7% 5.9% 3.3% 2.6% 0.6% 2.0% 3.8% 15.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/14/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 34 32 28 34 28 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 21 23 23 24 24 24 31 29 25 31 25 24 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 19 19 20 20 20 27 25 21 27 21 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT