* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932022 06/14/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 28 33 39 46 50 56 62 64 64 63 63 65 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 19 22 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 33 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 14 18 26 21 23 15 15 11 6 4 6 10 9 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 0 2 -1 3 -2 -3 0 6 0 SHEAR DIR 313 323 305 305 315 299 317 300 333 33 67 129 225 234 356 102 98 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.9 29.8 27.5 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 146 149 148 144 142 143 149 146 144 151 168 132 125 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 140 140 141 144 141 135 132 134 142 138 136 146 168 129 121 120 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 5 5 5 3 4 3 5 4 5 4 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 76 76 81 79 78 82 81 85 85 86 86 88 86 85 82 82 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 15 15 16 17 15 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 88 91 87 91 83 95 106 100 113 113 133 120 128 116 112 93 200 MB DIV 131 97 89 103 95 105 124 140 123 136 111 91 59 49 46 70 26 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 1 3 1 -1 -3 -2 1 1 6 1 4 -8 4 5 LAND (KM) 222 132 45 -32 -111 -111 -35 -13 -21 -99 -162 -24 10 -115 -22 -176 -136 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.3 14.3 15.5 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.5 83.3 84.0 84.7 85.8 86.8 87.2 87.2 86.8 86.3 86.7 88.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 5 3 2 3 5 6 7 12 15 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 17 20 21 21 14 14 14 21 10 20 23 5 6 2 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 39. 43. 44. 45. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 19. 26. 30. 36. 42. 44. 44. 43. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 81.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932022 INVEST 06/14/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 10.9% 4.8% 1.7% 0.4% 2.5% 6.3% 29.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 1.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.8% 2.1% 9.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932022 INVEST 06/14/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932022 INVEST 06/14/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 23 22 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 19 21 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 28 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 15 17 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 24 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT