* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/09/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 39 38 39 46 51 56 62 68 70 77 83 86 85 84 84 V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 42 49 54 59 65 71 73 80 86 89 88 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 38 35 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 18 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 80 87 80 96 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 166 168 170 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 168 166 168 170 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 84 85 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 12 10 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 140 133 110 96 82 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 195 192 181 167 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 -2 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -57 18 44 31 39 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.3 87.5 88.7 89.7 90.7 93.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 21 18 19 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 394 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 28. 33. 37. 38. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -9. -5. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -6. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 25. 32. 38. 41. 40. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.3 86.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 175.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.95 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 13.6% 8.3% 6.2% 5.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 10.4% 2.1% 1.8% 3.8% 4.6% 11.1% 29.0% Bayesian: 4.2% 8.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 2.4% 91.3% Consensus: 2.4% 11.0% 3.6% 2.7% 3.0% 5.5% 4.5% 40.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/09/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 42 41 42 49 54 59 65 71 73 80 86 89 88 87 88 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 42 49 54 59 65 71 73 80 86 89 88 87 88 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 41 48 53 58 64 70 72 79 85 88 87 86 87 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 43 48 53 59 65 67 74 80 83 82 81 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT