* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/09/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 71 73 74 76 79 80 80 83 86 90 91 91 90 V (KT) LAND 65 48 46 48 49 51 52 54 57 58 58 61 64 68 69 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 65 48 40 46 48 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 19 22 19 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 71 91 81 85 123 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 30.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 169 169 167 163 172 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 165 169 169 167 163 172 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 85 84 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 17 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 131 142 114 98 80 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 136 154 204 231 220 155 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 -3 0 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -116 -92 2 44 70 84 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.6 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.7 86.0 87.3 88.6 90.0 92.3 93.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 22 18 17 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 459 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -16. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 7. 7. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 18. 21. 25. 26. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.4 84.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 189.0 -29.7 to 185.9 1.00 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 49.8% 33.2% 20.5% 15.1% 25.2% 17.0% 14.4% Logistic: 23.3% 53.8% 22.7% 30.3% 38.8% 25.2% 31.7% 38.5% Bayesian: 7.3% 52.3% 11.7% 4.2% 1.3% 24.1% 4.2% 90.3% Consensus: 15.1% 51.9% 22.5% 18.3% 18.4% 24.8% 17.6% 47.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/09/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 48 46 48 49 51 52 54 57 58 58 61 64 68 69 69 68 18HR AGO 65 64 62 64 65 67 68 70 73 74 74 77 80 84 85 85 84 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 64 66 67 69 72 73 73 76 79 83 84 84 83 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 58 59 61 64 65 65 68 71 75 76 76 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT