* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/09/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 84 85 86 85 81 81 83 83 81 83 86 91 93 95 94 V (KT) LAND 75 56 43 43 44 43 39 39 41 41 39 41 44 49 51 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 75 58 44 38 45 52 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 14 12 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 37 69 96 83 87 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.0 30.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 167 173 173 171 171 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 167 173 173 171 171 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 85 85 85 85 85 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 16 13 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 105 137 136 115 90 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 129 134 144 182 210 195 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 3 -2 -2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 32 -116 -80 10 44 99 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.1 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.7 86.1 87.5 88.8 91.4 94.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 23 18 16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 6. 6. 8. 8. 6. 8. 11. 16. 18. 20. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 12.4 83.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 20.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.99 11.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 7.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 8.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 159.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.88 3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 7.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 43.2% 76.4% 67.2% 46.4% 32.2% 56.5% 31.3% 22.8% Logistic: 51.2% 82.4% 60.1% 61.1% 63.0% 53.0% 45.9% 55.0% Bayesian: 46.4% 90.8% 64.4% 38.9% 12.0% 66.2% 9.0% 92.0% Consensus: 46.9% 83.2% 63.9% 48.8% 35.7% 58.6% 28.8% 56.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/09/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 56 43 43 44 43 39 39 41 41 39 41 44 49 51 53 52 18HR AGO 75 74 61 61 62 61 57 57 59 59 57 59 62 67 69 71 70 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 72 71 67 67 69 69 67 69 72 77 79 81 80 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 65 61 61 63 63 61 63 66 71 73 75 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT