* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/09/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 76 76 77 77 80 83 84 84 86 90 94 95 97 95 V (KT) LAND 65 71 53 42 36 41 41 44 47 48 48 50 54 58 59 61 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 54 42 36 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 8 15 19 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 1 0 -3 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 52 65 52 78 85 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.0 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 167 173 173 171 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 167 173 173 171 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 85 84 86 85 85 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 15 12 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 96 125 136 103 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 142 133 119 131 171 196 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 166 24 -119 -100 -6 64 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.3 84.7 86.0 87.4 90.1 92.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 30 27 31 25 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 21. 25. 29. 30. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.5 82.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 7.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 139.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.78 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 6.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.9% 65.0% 53.1% 35.4% 26.8% 47.6% 28.5% 23.4% Logistic: 34.2% 71.8% 45.8% 40.8% 40.7% 39.2% 47.0% 64.5% Bayesian: 30.0% 78.1% 33.9% 14.6% 8.1% 50.3% 19.0% 97.8% Consensus: 30.0% 71.6% 44.2% 30.3% 25.2% 45.7% 31.5% 61.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/09/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/09/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 0( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 53 42 36 41 41 44 47 48 48 50 54 58 59 61 59 18HR AGO 65 64 46 35 29 34 34 37 40 41 41 43 47 51 52 54 52 12HR AGO 65 62 61 50 44 49 49 52 55 56 56 58 62 66 67 69 67 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 49 54 54 57 60 61 61 63 67 71 72 74 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT