* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 78 81 79 78 78 78 76 74 75 78 83 85 87 85 V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 78 64 39 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 70 76 66 39 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 9 12 16 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 357 31 61 49 85 78 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.2 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 159 159 163 172 170 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 162 159 159 163 172 170 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 82 83 84 84 84 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 25 22 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 88 81 82 88 149 110 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 131 135 125 127 181 163 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 0 0 2 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 331 175 58 -58 -90 -31 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 13.0 13.5 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.0 80.5 81.9 83.0 84.1 86.6 89.1 91.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 11 12 12 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 33 32 30 34 31 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 23. 26. 29. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 1. -6. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 23. 26. 24. 23. 23. 23. 21. 19. 20. 23. 28. 30. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.7 79.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 7.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.72 2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 6.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 75% is 16.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.6% 74.4% 62.5% 41.5% 28.1% 74.8% 47.9% 27.8% Logistic: 46.5% 88.2% 73.8% 63.4% 60.0% 66.8% 70.6% 82.3% Bayesian: 44.5% 91.1% 61.8% 33.3% 24.3% 37.7% 11.5% 96.4% Consensus: 39.5% 84.6% 66.0% 46.1% 37.5% 59.8% 43.4% 68.8% DTOPS: 23.0% 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/08/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 14( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 70 78 64 39 32 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 62 70 56 31 24 22 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 59 45 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT