* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 58 66 75 82 86 84 83 80 76 73 72 74 79 81 83 82 V (KT) LAND 50 58 66 75 82 51 35 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 65 72 78 50 34 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 5 6 10 11 26 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -6 -3 0 -2 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 322 37 54 46 58 72 85 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.9 30.2 29.6 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 163 161 168 172 163 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 161 162 163 161 168 172 163 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 4 4 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 81 84 84 83 84 84 85 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 21 22 23 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 89 84 83 109 134 96 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 111 129 146 142 149 184 145 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 0 -1 3 -2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 303 346 326 202 79 -169 -38 -20 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.2 78.9 80.5 81.6 82.8 85.1 87.5 89.9 92.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 13 11 12 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 28 33 34 31 44 29 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. -2. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 25. 32. 36. 34. 33. 30. 26. 23. 22. 24. 29. 31. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.7 77.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 18.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 10.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 7.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 73% is 15.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.1% 74.9% 63.0% 41.1% 27.7% 73.1% 58.9% 31.0% Logistic: 52.9% 90.7% 80.6% 71.1% 63.8% 70.0% 77.6% 85.1% Bayesian: 51.6% 87.4% 64.6% 40.8% 23.4% 34.7% 26.8% 98.3% Consensus: 43.9% 84.3% 69.4% 51.0% 38.3% 59.2% 54.4% 71.5% DTOPS: 18.0% 42.0% 23.0% 29.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/08/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 8( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 5( 5) 12( 16) 0( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 58 66 75 82 51 35 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 57 66 73 42 26 21 19 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 50 47 46 55 62 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 47 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT