* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 52 59 66 76 74 74 74 73 71 71 74 78 79 81 80 V (KT) LAND 40 45 52 59 66 76 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 52 57 64 38 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 7 8 13 18 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -5 -3 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 292 324 25 54 45 61 104 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 30.0 29.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 160 163 161 171 169 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 162 160 160 163 161 171 169 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 78 81 83 84 83 84 85 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 21 22 22 21 13 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 103 103 95 90 90 138 124 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 82 115 135 124 132 168 147 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 3 1 1 -1 0 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 205 286 374 351 271 11 -151 -56 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.3 76.8 78.4 79.7 81.0 83.4 85.9 88.3 90.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 34 28 31 34 34 27 24 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 3. 4. 4. -4. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 26. 36. 34. 34. 34. 33. 31. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.8 75.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 44.6% 28.5% 13.5% 8.0% 24.9% 28.5% 35.4% Logistic: 22.5% 75.9% 52.9% 33.9% 29.7% 52.3% 66.2% 86.6% Bayesian: 9.6% 69.8% 36.0% 10.6% 3.5% 23.3% 8.9% 98.1% Consensus: 13.2% 63.4% 39.1% 19.3% 13.7% 33.5% 34.5% 73.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 51.0% 23.0% 11.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 2( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 52 59 66 76 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 60 70 36 26 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 50 60 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 37 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT