* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 54 61 77 81 81 80 76 71 70 71 73 73 74 73 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 54 61 77 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 52 62 47 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 9 9 9 14 18 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 294 297 343 24 34 68 89 115 132 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.9 29.5 29.4 28.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 162 160 160 159 168 162 160 145 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 165 162 160 160 159 168 162 160 141 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 75 78 79 81 84 85 84 85 89 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 20 21 24 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 96 98 108 100 95 120 154 108 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 95 90 103 111 154 191 178 136 129 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 245 359 419 339 108 -141 -144 -133 -98 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 13.4 14.2 15.1 16.0 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.9 75.6 77.3 78.7 80.2 82.5 84.8 87.2 90.0 92.5 94.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 14 13 11 12 13 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 53 38 31 33 30 5 4 15 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 31. 35. 39. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 16. 15. 11. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 19. 26. 42. 46. 46. 45. 41. 36. 35. 36. 38. 38. 39. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 73.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.57 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 23.0% 11.1% 8.6% 6.3% 11.4% 25.6% 34.4% Logistic: 10.4% 53.7% 29.9% 12.0% 6.8% 20.0% 59.9% 85.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 39.4% 10.5% 1.4% 2.1% 10.6% 28.5% 95.8% Consensus: 6.2% 38.7% 17.1% 7.3% 5.1% 14.0% 38.0% 71.8% DTOPS: 4.0% 46.0% 19.0% 6.0% 3.0% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/07/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 54 61 77 53 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 40 49 56 72 48 30 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 40 47 63 39 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 48 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT