* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JULIA AL132022 10/07/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 49 57 70 82 79 76 71 65 65 67 71 72 74 74 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 49 57 70 82 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 50 63 74 42 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 9 10 9 12 14 17 15 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 3 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 333 314 319 333 60 50 67 98 121 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 28.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 164 164 160 161 163 165 163 151 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 162 164 164 160 161 163 165 163 150 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 76 78 78 80 82 84 85 86 89 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 17 19 22 24 17 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 83 91 95 101 96 105 158 140 106 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 73 95 86 102 129 143 162 161 169 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 3 3 2 0 -5 5 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 47 163 214 301 419 253 11 -214 -123 -156 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.7 75.2 76.7 78.3 81.1 83.4 85.8 88.1 90.5 93.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 13 11 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 40 44 43 31 33 39 10 24 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 23. 26. 31. 36. 40. 41. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -15. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 1. -3. -7. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 22. 35. 47. 44. 41. 36. 30. 30. 32. 36. 37. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 72.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 JULIA 10/07/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 28.5% 15.7% 9.0% 6.7% 12.1% 27.1% 41.4% Logistic: 19.5% 72.8% 52.2% 26.9% 22.7% 47.6% 62.3% 90.4% Bayesian: 3.7% 44.8% 12.4% 0.9% 0.9% 15.0% 31.1% 96.2% Consensus: 9.8% 48.7% 26.8% 12.3% 10.1% 24.9% 40.2% 76.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 29.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 JULIA 10/07/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 JULIA 10/07/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 5( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 49 57 70 82 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 44 52 65 77 38 27 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 45 58 70 31 20 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 33 46 58 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT