* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132022 10/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 55 70 76 74 71 66 69 72 76 77 79 79 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 41 54 69 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 32 34 37 45 56 50 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 10 12 7 13 17 11 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -2 -5 -2 -5 -4 1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 324 331 330 318 308 23 43 42 82 107 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 30.0 29.3 29.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 164 164 164 161 163 170 157 167 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 162 164 164 164 161 163 170 157 167 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 76 78 80 82 84 85 86 87 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 16 21 26 23 18 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 59 77 91 96 101 101 108 150 121 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 46 65 93 83 136 143 158 178 196 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 3 6 2 1 -1 -4 -1 3 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 22 13 150 206 291 400 173 -76 -159 -79 -186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.5 72.0 73.4 75.0 76.5 79.4 81.9 84.2 86.5 88.8 91.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 13 12 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 32 41 45 47 32 32 31 9 43 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 43. 45. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 9. 2. -3. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 25. 40. 46. 44. 41. 36. 39. 42. 46. 47. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 70.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.76 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 17.1% 10.1% 7.6% 5.7% 10.3% 14.1% 37.8% Logistic: 11.2% 57.9% 32.7% 10.1% 8.7% 30.5% 60.9% 88.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 16.4% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 19.2% 92.2% Consensus: 5.6% 30.5% 15.4% 6.0% 4.9% 14.5% 31.4% 72.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/07/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/07/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 37 41 54 69 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 39 52 67 56 35 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 47 62 51 30 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 37 52 41 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT