* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132022 10/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 44 57 70 81 75 74 68 70 74 77 78 80 81 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 42 55 69 79 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 28 33 36 43 54 63 43 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 15 10 11 9 9 10 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 310 326 336 342 352 57 40 65 101 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.7 30.0 29.4 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 164 164 160 163 164 171 160 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 163 162 162 164 164 160 163 164 171 160 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 9 8 5 5 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 76 77 81 85 84 86 88 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 20 22 25 17 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 63 77 95 105 97 109 136 155 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 76 61 85 99 96 149 121 162 155 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 4 5 2 0 1 -1 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 19 23 5 141 204 396 306 87 -173 -137 -145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.5 14.3 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.1 70.5 71.9 73.4 74.9 78.0 80.6 82.7 85.1 87.6 90.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 14 11 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 36 32 39 45 33 35 34 5 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 24. 28. 33. 39. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 12. 2. 0. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 27. 40. 51. 45. 44. 38. 40. 44. 47. 49. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 69.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.89 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 15.4% 9.2% 6.8% 5.1% 9.7% 12.3% 42.8% Logistic: 12.0% 64.8% 41.8% 22.4% 17.8% 27.0% 48.0% 82.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 6.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 13.0% 81.7% Consensus: 5.5% 29.0% 17.5% 9.8% 7.7% 12.6% 24.4% 69.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/07/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/07/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 37 42 55 69 79 48 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 40 53 67 77 46 31 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 48 62 72 41 26 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 38 52 62 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT