* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN AL132022 10/06/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 69 82 88 79 76 72 74 78 80 82 82 V (KT) LAND 30 28 34 35 40 50 65 78 65 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 32 32 35 43 55 71 65 39 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 11 15 12 7 10 12 15 9 17 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -2 8 3 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 323 315 325 342 326 51 53 48 69 95 135 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.3 28.6 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 164 164 166 162 163 162 166 170 157 146 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 166 164 164 164 166 162 163 162 166 170 157 143 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 9 6 6 4 5 4 4 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 74 75 75 76 80 84 86 85 87 87 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 13 15 21 25 26 17 15 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 50 52 63 80 96 95 103 107 175 152 118 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 116 74 53 71 91 134 120 162 172 187 143 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 -5 -3 4 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 -15 31 36 149 298 357 152 -58 -136 -122 -122 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 13.2 14.2 15.1 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.0 69.5 70.9 72.3 73.8 76.9 79.8 82.1 84.1 86.2 88.3 90.5 92.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 15 15 13 10 10 11 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 41 37 31 37 36 33 32 35 20 12 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 14. 19. 23. 28. 33. 38. 43. 45. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -14. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 11. 12. 1. -3. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 39. 52. 58. 49. 46. 42. 44. 48. 50. 52. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.5 68.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/06/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.90 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 31.5% 19.1% 9.3% 7.0% 14.6% 24.0% 40.9% Logistic: 27.0% 67.2% 49.8% 32.3% 20.8% 40.4% 52.2% 75.4% Bayesian: 5.5% 33.1% 13.5% 1.5% 1.1% 7.1% 3.8% 83.3% Consensus: 13.0% 43.9% 27.5% 14.4% 9.6% 20.7% 26.7% 66.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/06/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132022 THIRTEEN 10/06/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 34 35 40 50 65 78 65 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 35 36 41 51 66 79 66 40 32 29 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 32 42 57 70 57 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 50 63 50 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT