* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122022 10/05/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 31 27 24 23 20 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 31 27 24 23 20 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 23 22 23 29 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 5 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 225 237 232 237 248 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 132 133 129 123 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 125 125 121 115 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 67 66 65 63 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 58 51 36 17 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 67 80 77 89 47 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 6 5 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1396 1445 1498 1566 1638 1790 1950 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.5 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.5 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.5 34.1 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 15 12 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -24. -25. -26. -29. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 30.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122022 TWELVE 10/05/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.26 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.2% 5.9% 5.2% 3.2% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 4.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122022 TWELVE 10/05/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 34 31 27 24 23 20 18 18 18 17 18 19 20 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 28 24 21 20 17 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 24 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT