* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE AL122022 10/04/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 36 36 34 31 26 25 21 24 28 34 37 40 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 36 36 34 31 26 25 21 24 28 34 37 40 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 31 27 23 20 18 19 22 26 32 36 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 23 24 25 36 41 39 27 23 7 10 8 18 18 36 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 3 3 4 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 -4 0 -5 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 215 229 235 235 235 240 243 266 270 298 265 312 323 320 237 240 229 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.5 28.4 28.1 27.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 132 128 123 123 122 126 126 127 133 144 138 125 122 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 127 125 119 114 113 110 115 116 117 123 129 118 108 107 106 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.8 -56.4 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -57.5 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 63 64 63 64 67 66 62 60 61 60 59 64 61 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 9 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 52 56 51 12 0 -33 -19 -27 -21 -41 -47 -47 -37 -35 -41 200 MB DIV 84 69 53 65 68 53 29 14 -5 -22 11 -9 15 20 42 62 65 700-850 TADV 1 4 4 8 11 5 24 10 4 1 0 -6 0 3 4 10 2 LAND (KM) 1376 1450 1518 1591 1650 1713 1803 1943 2151 2439 2404 2120 1943 1757 1540 1371 1279 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.8 21.6 23.1 24.3 25.1 26.1 27.4 29.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 30.3 31.0 31.6 32.2 32.6 33.4 34.4 35.8 37.8 40.6 43.9 47.5 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 12 15 17 17 14 10 12 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 12 14 11 4 3 3 14 4 8 11 23 17 9 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. -14. -19. -20. -19. -17. -18. -19. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -5. -9. -6. -2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 30.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122022 TWELVE 10/04/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.58 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.0% 8.5% 7.3% 4.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 13.8% 8.6% 5.9% 1.7% 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.3% 1.5% 1.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 9.4% 6.3% 4.8% 2.3% 3.6% 0.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122022 TWELVE 10/04/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 34 36 36 34 31 26 25 21 24 28 34 37 40 40 38 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 32 30 27 22 21 17 20 24 30 33 36 36 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 28 26 23 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT