* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 36 35 34 30 27 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 36 35 34 30 27 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 35 34 33 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 33 34 24 18 12 15 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 0 1 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 325 320 312 298 327 349 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.4 24.9 25.0 25.1 26.5 25.8 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 100 103 104 105 119 113 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 84 86 87 88 100 96 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.8 -57.0 -56.4 -56.3 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 43 40 39 38 32 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 12 11 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -40 -55 -50 -51 -73 -80 -114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -54 -46 -26 -22 -13 -38 -76 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -3 -4 -6 -10 -18 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1552 1492 1433 1399 1368 1304 1220 1192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 39.1 38.9 38.6 38.3 37.6 37.0 36.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.1 39.1 40.0 40.9 43.1 46.2 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -18. -20. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 39.2 37.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 GASTON 09/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/25/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 36 35 34 30 27 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 34 30 27 25 24 24 24 23 22 22 22 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 33 29 26 24 23 23 23 22 21 21 21 22 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 24 21 19 18 18 18 17 16 16 16 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT