* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL082022 09/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 58 59 60 57 53 54 57 50 41 34 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 56 58 59 60 57 53 54 57 50 41 34 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 57 58 57 55 52 50 51 52 48 44 41 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 25 23 29 21 25 25 25 23 21 25 20 31 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 -3 2 1 -3 -2 0 -4 1 -9 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 212 224 215 228 257 278 288 286 255 271 331 252 220 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.0 24.9 24.1 24.4 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.4 22.0 21.5 19.9 17.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 110 106 105 99 100 94 92 91 92 87 85 78 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 97 94 91 90 84 83 77 75 75 77 76 74 69 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.8 -57.0 -57.7 -58.3 -59.1 -58.6 -58.0 -58.1 -58.0 -56.6 -56.2 -55.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.6 0.1 0.4 -1.1 -1.0 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 48 45 42 39 40 46 49 50 50 49 42 45 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 16 16 16 14 12 14 18 16 10 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -50 -44 -51 -57 -63 -57 -52 -56 -64 -63 -68 -104 -108 -109 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 35 20 0 6 11 0 5 -12 21 -26 -32 -13 41 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -3 -1 9 4 5 6 4 2 -2 15 15 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1445 1379 1324 1351 1391 1514 1677 1782 1771 1763 1718 1553 1268 1243 1386 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.7 37.8 38.5 39.2 40.1 40.5 40.6 40.8 41.1 41.7 43.1 45.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.1 43.3 42.4 40.9 39.4 36.7 34.1 32.6 32.6 32.5 32.7 34.0 36.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 10 8 3 1 2 6 12 11 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -2. 2. -2. -9. -14. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 12. 8. 9. 12. 5. -4. -11. -18. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 35.6 44.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082022 GASTON 09/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 11.6% 7.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 5.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 5.7% 3.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082022 GASTON 09/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082022 GASTON 09/21/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 56 58 59 60 57 53 54 57 50 41 34 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 48 50 52 53 54 51 47 48 51 44 35 28 21 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 46 47 44 40 41 44 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 39 36 32 33 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT