* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 70 55 41 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 68 53 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 68 56 40 33 32 30 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 51 45 37 34 42 28 20 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -5 0 15 10 6 -2 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 158 158 171 178 168 147 141 157 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 17.5 15.4 13.7 12.9 16.5 5.4 7.4 7.2 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 73 70 69 73 65 64 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 69 67 66 68 N/A 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.1 -48.5 -48.1 -47.2 -48.1 -49.1 -49.2 -49.0 -49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 2.2 4.0 2.9 2.9 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 47 57 64 69 66 73 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 61 56 48 40 33 23 23 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 255 250 265 271 223 174 158 135 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 53 85 93 92 96 55 2 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -72 -26 -23 2 5 -23 -3 11 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 14 72 39 -92 -190 180 287 357 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.1 47.3 49.5 51.2 52.8 56.4 59.4 61.7 64.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.3 61.4 60.5 59.5 58.1 58.3 57.9 58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 22 20 18 18 17 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 35 CX,CY: 0/ 35 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -32. -43. -52. -61. -66. -71. -75. -79. -80. -81. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -19. -16. -13. -12. -12. -14. -16. -19. -21. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -20. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -6. -13. -20. -32. -42. -51. -62. -65. -68. -69. -68. -65. -63. -60. -58. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 15. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -15. -30. -44. -58. -81.-101.-117.-132.-138.-142.-145.-151.-158.-162.-163.-160. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 45.1 61.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -15.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/24/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 68 53 38 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 69 54 49 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 12HR AGO 85 82 81 66 61 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 70 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT