* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 87 72 57 44 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 87 72 57 44 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 84 67 54 44 31 32 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 51 46 32 29 35 30 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 -5 -1 3 6 1 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 154 153 166 170 159 138 144 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 17.1 15.7 14.8 15.1 11.4 8.7 8.1 7.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 76 72 69 71 69 67 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 72 68 65 67 67 65 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.3 -48.3 -48.2 -48.0 -49.8 -49.9 -48.8 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 1.6 2.2 4.1 3.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 53 54 54 60 67 71 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 55 60 56 48 41 27 22 22 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 237 260 255 271 273 229 171 169 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 80 57 101 72 89 86 25 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -39 -109 -60 -23 -9 -33 -37 6 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 100 62 34 82 -78 300 405 467 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.3 44.7 47.0 48.2 49.4 53.2 57.9 60.7 61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 60.2 59.7 59.5 59.3 57.7 56.8 57.2 55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 24 18 12 16 22 18 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 45 CX,CY: 15/ 42 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -5. -12. -18. -23. -31. -41. -54. -69. -80. -87. -92. -96.-100.-101.-101.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -18. -21. -27. -28. -24. -19. -17. -15. -17. -18. -20. -20. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -4. -10. -24. -36. -43. -51. -54. -56. -57. -57. -55. -53. -50. -49. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 16. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -28. -43. -56. -84.-109.-124.-137.-144.-149.-152.-158.-166.-171.-172.-172. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 42.3 60.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -27.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 4( 25) 0( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 87 72 57 44 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 84 69 56 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 81 68 53 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 77 62 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 66 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 IN 6HR 100 87 78 72 69 68 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT