* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 99 85 70 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 106 99 85 70 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 108 93 70 54 35 30 35 36 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 47 52 46 30 30 32 24 10 15 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 6 -7 -3 1 0 -2 -1 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 192 161 155 163 156 150 150 173 244 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 20.0 16.7 15.6 14.7 8.8 9.3 9.0 8.2 7.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 84 74 72 70 66 66 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 118 77 69 68 67 65 64 62 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -48.7 -48.0 -47.8 -48.2 -49.8 -49.8 -48.8 -48.6 -48.4 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.3 4.3 3.1 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 52 51 55 60 59 58 67 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 48 54 63 58 49 33 23 23 21 16 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 168 224 281 297 278 268 243 187 98 87 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 162 94 103 71 74 76 69 56 61 36 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -61 -80 -51 -19 10 -29 -4 2 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 744 513 235 99 67 -26 -26 296 408 508 555 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 40.4 43.3 45.1 46.9 49.6 53.2 56.7 59.3 60.9 61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 60.8 59.9 59.5 59.2 57.5 56.5 55.9 55.9 55.3 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 30 24 18 17 16 18 15 11 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 35 CX,CY: 22/ 27 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -6. -12. -18. -28. -41. -56. -72. -86. -96.-101.-105.-109.-110.-110.-109. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -14. -21. -25. -30. -30. -26. -21. -14. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 7. 6. 0. -14. -28. -33. -39. -47. -61. -62. -62. -59. -57. -54. -53. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -25. -40. -71. -98.-111.-123.-137.-156.-161.-164.-167.-169.-169.-172. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 37.5 61.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 332.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -18.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 21( 44) 4( 46) 0( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 106 99 85 70 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 102 88 73 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 92 77 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 85 56 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 62 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 IN 6HR 110 106 97 91 88 76 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 IN 12HR 110 106 99 90 84 80 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39