* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 91 80 56 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 91 80 55 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 98 97 85 65 42 31 32 34 34 35 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 29 54 50 45 24 28 29 17 10 21 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 17 8 9 -11 0 4 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 215 200 172 155 179 161 150 139 216 236 232 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 26.8 20.7 17.4 15.0 11.5 6.1 7.6 8.1 6.9 5.6 4.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 128 86 76 71 68 66 65 64 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 116 79 71 67 66 65 64 62 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -49.9 -48.4 -47.4 -47.7 -48.7 -50.1 -49.6 -49.1 -48.9 -48.3 -46.7 -47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.4 2.5 3.7 2.3 2.4 3.1 2.7 0.4 2.1 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 53 50 41 45 55 55 58 67 76 75 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 51 58 63 58 42 28 24 23 18 11 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 189 250 313 303 283 242 206 116 74 86 121 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 145 160 130 143 38 34 76 44 51 24 -4 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 47 6 -26 -42 -31 -4 -15 -13 -4 12 18 18 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 929 730 490 296 68 50 11 72 262 412 447 396 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.3 37.1 39.9 42.3 44.6 47.7 51.1 54.9 58.3 60.8 62.5 63.7 64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.0 63.6 62.1 61.6 61.0 59.9 58.3 57.6 57.8 57.1 55.8 55.7 57.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 30 27 24 20 17 18 18 15 11 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 19 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -5. -9. -19. -30. -43. -56. -68. -77. -82. -85. -89. -90. -91. -91. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -9. -16. -21. -25. -25. -23. -20. -14. -11. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 2. 7. 12. 10. -3. -19. -27. -30. -40. -52. -58. -57. -54. -53. -50. -49. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -20. -44. -71. -88. -99.-113.-129.-138.-139.-143.-145.-147.-150. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 34.3 65.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/23/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 17( 35) 7( 40) 0( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 97 95 91 80 55 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 97 93 82 57 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 81 56 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 79 54 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 56 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 97 88 82 79 72 45 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 IN 12HR 100 97 95 86 80 76 49 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21