* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 111 107 85 58 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 113 111 107 75 54 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 114 113 116 114 68 43 29 33 33 34 35 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 17 36 49 46 28 33 32 19 9 19 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 10 11 9 -9 5 4 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 255 249 205 193 149 179 164 149 140 207 234 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 27.9 27.3 27.5 26.7 17.2 15.1 12.6 5.8 7.9 6.9 5.0 5.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 140 134 138 127 75 71 69 65 66 64 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 131 127 133 115 70 67 66 64 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -49.6 -48.4 -48.0 -47.8 -49.4 -48.8 -48.1 -48.8 -48.3 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.7 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.8 1.1 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 60 59 53 52 44 52 56 60 67 79 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 43 43 49 57 58 42 29 24 23 19 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 77 122 191 237 277 279 237 195 125 109 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 102 139 165 123 73 39 76 66 52 -39 -49 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 28 49 27 -51 -75 -36 -6 -16 -16 -9 7 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 817 865 915 686 447 -14 75 -78 81 276 341 291 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.7 34.4 37.6 40.7 45.5 48.2 51.9 55.1 58.6 62.2 64.0 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.0 67.1 65.1 63.4 61.6 61.2 60.2 58.5 57.8 57.8 58.1 57.7 56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 29 34 29 19 17 17 17 17 13 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 10 23 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 16 CX,CY: 8/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -4. -15. -30. -46. -63. -77. -88. -93. -96.-100.-102.-102.-101. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -8. -16. -28. -29. -26. -24. -18. -11. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 4. 10. 12. -2. -18. -27. -30. -37. -46. -58. -55. -54. -51. -50. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -8. -30. -57. -84.-105.-114.-125.-135.-147.-148.-149.-150.-153. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 30.9 69.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 27( 65) 0( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 113 111 107 75 54 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 112 110 106 74 53 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 105 73 52 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 69 48 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 64 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 74 53 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 113 104 98 94 73 49 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19