* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 115 113 110 96 71 42 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 115 113 110 96 66 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 113 112 113 116 93 53 33 29 33 34 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 13 20 39 56 30 30 33 24 8 12 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 7 7 8 6 -3 5 5 -1 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 218 240 218 207 163 160 165 151 134 157 226 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.3 27.5 17.7 15.7 15.0 11.4 5.2 7.1 6.2 2.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 151 143 134 137 78 71 71 68 64 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 137 134 128 129 73 67 68 66 N/A 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -49.8 -47.8 -48.1 -48.8 -48.6 -48.0 -47.9 -48.1 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 4.4 3.1 2.4 2.7 3.5 2.3 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 60 60 54 44 46 55 63 71 73 79 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 42 43 49 62 50 34 25 23 20 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 45 78 143 186 276 263 256 210 147 80 103 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 53 93 153 162 126 68 44 57 58 43 -24 -65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 35 52 17 -59 -63 -12 4 -14 -24 2 19 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 821 821 833 684 137 53 44 -47 173 325 326 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 31.1 32.6 35.1 37.6 43.8 47.1 49.9 54.4 57.9 60.3 62.9 66.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.9 68.8 67.6 65.4 63.2 61.5 61.2 59.6 59.4 59.1 58.4 58.0 58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 25 31 31 24 15 19 20 15 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 19 16 11 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -10. -25. -41. -57. -67. -79. -86. -89. -93. -95. -95. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -11. -25. -28. -24. -23. -18. -12. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -13. -16. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 5. 16. 7. -12. -26. -29. -35. -41. -53. -51. -49. -47. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -5. -19. -44. -73. -99.-108.-119.-128.-140.-141.-143.-144.-148. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 29.6 69.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 549.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 29( 66) 19( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 0( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 115 113 110 96 66 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 112 109 95 65 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 106 92 62 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 88 58 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 82 52 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 88 58 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 115 106 100 96 66 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS