* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 109 109 109 108 100 87 60 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 109 109 109 108 100 87 56 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 108 107 107 107 111 68 42 29 33 34 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 14 17 51 47 29 33 35 16 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 12 6 9 14 -3 7 4 -3 -1 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 223 234 244 235 196 152 175 165 136 124 191 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.8 27.8 27.3 27.0 17.4 14.9 13.1 6.7 7.5 7.2 5.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 152 139 133 130 76 70 69 66 65 64 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 141 130 125 117 71 67 66 65 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.7 -48.4 -47.9 -47.6 -48.8 -48.1 -47.0 -47.1 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.7 1.1 2.4 3.3 2.3 3.5 3.9 3.3 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 64 61 46 44 50 57 66 71 77 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 44 42 42 45 56 59 44 30 25 24 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 12 36 72 129 230 275 281 245 206 132 100 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 73 36 81 156 105 44 33 51 61 72 5 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 29 34 44 19 -51 -19 4 -6 -20 -7 2 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 912 878 846 869 881 445 0 121 -99 35 259 354 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.4 30.8 32.8 34.7 40.4 45.2 48.1 51.5 55.2 58.7 61.5 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.6 69.6 68.7 66.9 65.2 62.1 61.2 60.9 60.1 59.1 58.2 58.0 58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 21 24 28 27 20 16 18 18 16 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 27 19 18 10 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 1. 0. -5. -17. -33. -47. -60. -68. -77. -80. -84. -86. -87. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -3. -5. -16. -23. -21. -20. -16. -12. -9. -7. -7. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -18. -23. -26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 11. 17. 0. -19. -28. -31. -38. -46. -44. -43. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -10. -23. -50. -80. -96.-102.-113.-121.-125.-128.-130.-134. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 28.0 70.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 535.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 28( 49) 28( 63) 22( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 109 109 109 108 100 87 56 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 109 109 108 100 87 56 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 106 105 97 84 53 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 91 78 47 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 83 70 39 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 109 100 94 91 85 72 41 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 109 109 100 94 90 77 46 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS