* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 113 113 112 107 103 89 62 37 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 113 113 112 107 103 79 57 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 114 114 114 113 111 111 67 42 28 29 35 38 42 47 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 13 7 20 47 48 21 24 22 12 0 10 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 7 9 12 9 13 -4 3 2 0 -1 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 247 249 226 225 242 190 139 168 155 122 97 96 218 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 27.5 26.5 17.0 14.9 13.1 12.1 4.5 6.7 5.5 2.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 159 155 136 125 74 69 69 69 65 64 62 60 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 147 145 143 128 114 70 65 66 66 N/A 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -48.3 -47.5 -46.9 -47.8 -47.0 -47.0 -47.1 -47.5 -47.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.0 1.9 3.0 3.9 3.0 3.3 3.1 4.1 2.2 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 61 60 64 55 51 63 64 72 78 83 87 75 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 41 42 43 45 56 57 42 30 20 18 15 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 37 27 10 49 149 235 303 308 255 244 169 132 105 54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 106 77 72 54 41 144 79 32 46 49 56 63 -3 -34 -70 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 22 28 30 40 28 -54 -48 -10 3 -15 -14 6 7 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 689 806 926 887 846 907 469 -28 102 -32 -72 171 323 276 200 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 27.1 28.1 29.6 31.0 34.6 40.5 45.8 47.8 50.5 54.5 58.3 61.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.4 70.8 70.2 69.3 68.5 64.8 61.5 61.0 60.8 60.6 60.2 59.5 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 20 28 29 18 12 17 20 18 13 8 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 29 32 27 21 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -4. -13. -28. -43. -57. -68. -72. -80. -84. -85. -86. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -8. -11. -17. -21. -18. -13. -8. -6. -2. 0. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -18. -23. -27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 17. 21. 2. -15. -30. -35. -38. -40. -44. -42. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -12. -26. -53. -78. -99.-105.-114.-118.-125.-126.-129. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.0 71.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 523.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.39 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 8.5% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.1% 3.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/22/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 30( 66) 27( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 10 3( 13) 1( 14) 0( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 113 113 112 107 103 79 57 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 113 113 112 107 103 79 57 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 110 105 101 77 55 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 99 95 71 49 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 91 87 63 41 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 92 88 64 42 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 114 113 104 98 94 90 66 44 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS