* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 115 115 111 109 110 84 55 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 115 115 111 109 110 82 48 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 115 115 115 112 114 96 55 32 30 33 36 40 45 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 16 10 15 30 53 33 27 16 12 9 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 9 8 8 6 10 10 0 7 4 2 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 230 237 241 224 238 205 159 154 165 144 131 115 101 209 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 28.0 27.3 20.9 15.1 13.4 16.6 5.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 161 163 164 141 134 88 72 68 72 66 65 61 60 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 145 146 149 131 125 81 68 64 67 N/A 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -49.5 -47.3 -47.6 -47.7 -48.6 -48.0 -48.0 -48.5 -48.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 1.6 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 65 62 60 59 64 56 52 59 71 74 78 83 83 81 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 39 39 42 43 44 50 63 51 36 24 18 15 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 49 41 26 14 95 190 308 278 262 246 217 163 107 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 98 83 73 55 124 164 99 114 105 61 41 12 -5 -45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 23 25 27 36 -42 -54 -9 8 -3 -23 -11 -3 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 587 700 811 925 859 838 748 251 89 -47 -188 95 319 358 410 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.3 29.5 32.6 37.0 42.9 47.7 50.7 52.7 55.9 60.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.3 70.9 70.3 69.8 67.4 63.2 60.8 60.5 60.2 59.7 59.1 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 16 23 29 27 20 13 13 20 17 7 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 34 29 32 30 15 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -24. -37. -51. -62. -69. -77. -82. -84. -85. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -12. -17. -17. -13. -9. -6. -4. -1. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -21. -25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 14. 31. 17. -3. -21. -31. -34. -35. -36. -35. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. -0. -4. -6. -5. -31. -60. -85. -98.-108.-114.-117.-119.-122. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 25.1 71.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 9.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 5.5% 2.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 5.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 23.0% 20.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/21/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 31( 67) 29( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 1( 15) 4( 18) 0( 18) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 114 115 115 111 109 110 82 48 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 113 114 114 110 108 109 81 47 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 112 112 108 106 107 79 45 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 101 99 100 72 38 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 92 90 91 63 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 93 91 92 64 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 114 105 99 95 93 94 66 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS