* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/21/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 116 114 113 112 110 114 101 75 48 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 115 116 114 113 112 110 114 101 72 41 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 117 118 118 117 114 112 112 72 44 30 30 34 38 42 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 15 20 16 10 17 48 50 36 30 23 16 4 5 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 5 8 6 5 17 -1 4 3 -4 -2 -4 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 260 242 225 239 244 231 239 204 148 162 170 141 113 106 241 222 216 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.0 27.5 27.1 17.7 14.7 13.3 12.3 5.6 7.3 7.0 5.5 4.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 161 163 155 135 131 77 70 68 68 64 63 63 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 145 144 147 142 126 120 73 67 65 65 N/A 62 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -48.8 -47.5 -47.5 -49.0 -49.0 -48.7 -48.3 -47.4 -47.6 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.7 3.0 3.7 2.7 2.4 3.6 3.7 2.8 2.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 65 64 61 59 63 56 47 59 67 74 78 81 85 82 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 40 41 42 44 45 56 57 44 31 22 19 17 14 11 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 55 46 30 53 127 236 286 277 250 243 165 110 109 43 -26 200 MB DIV 85 88 74 66 59 83 133 134 62 66 82 52 32 51 16 4 -25 700-850 TADV 13 11 10 22 25 31 25 -13 -39 -16 16 -10 -22 0 15 16 22 LAND (KM) 487 585 678 800 913 824 919 578 64 107 -68 -56 180 341 404 396 322 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.1 26.0 27.0 28.0 30.8 34.2 39.2 44.7 48.6 51.3 54.2 57.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.1 70.5 69.0 65.5 61.6 60.8 60.3 59.8 59.2 58.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 19 26 28 24 17 14 16 15 10 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 68 53 35 29 32 21 12 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -10. -21. -33. -46. -58. -66. -70. -78. -84. -85. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -12. -16. -15. -11. -9. -7. -3. -0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -17. -21. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 25. 27. 10. -9. -22. -27. -29. -32. -34. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -1. -14. -40. -67. -86. -93.-102.-112.-118.-124. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.2 71.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 1.4% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 4.4% 2.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/21/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 30( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 6( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 116 114 113 112 110 114 101 72 41 31 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 115 113 112 111 109 113 100 71 40 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 108 107 105 109 96 67 36 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 103 101 105 92 63 32 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 95 93 97 84 55 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 96 94 98 85 56 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 116 107 101 97 95 99 86 57 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS