* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/21/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 115 117 114 113 112 112 112 89 58 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 116 115 117 114 113 112 112 112 89 58 34 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 119 120 120 120 119 114 112 98 56 35 30 33 36 40 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 15 18 11 11 32 55 48 36 21 19 10 4 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 4 2 7 8 8 3 11 -2 7 8 -2 -2 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 253 258 246 234 241 208 262 214 174 154 149 143 102 51 271 248 225 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.4 27.0 23.7 15.9 15.0 15.9 7.4 8.2 7.9 6.7 5.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 164 165 163 164 161 147 130 101 73 71 73 65 63 62 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 147 144 147 146 136 121 91 69 67 68 64 61 61 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -49.7 -47.3 -48.0 -47.9 -47.9 -49.3 -48.1 -47.3 -46.9 -47.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.5 4.0 3.8 2.8 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 63 66 69 66 62 66 57 52 52 59 73 78 72 78 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 34 40 40 44 44 48 59 51 36 24 19 18 19 12 7 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 45 51 45 27 93 191 271 280 257 258 197 143 100 80 34 200 MB DIV 68 74 77 94 66 71 125 148 108 96 51 60 54 59 41 7 -14 700-850 TADV 10 12 12 13 20 25 34 -35 -66 -27 -3 -14 -28 18 18 18 19 LAND (KM) 409 509 611 700 789 852 857 776 328 81 40 -134 242 376 437 485 435 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.1 26.9 29.5 32.4 36.7 42.3 46.6 49.9 53.4 57.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.6 71.5 71.3 71.0 69.9 67.3 63.4 60.3 59.3 59.7 59.4 57.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 11 16 23 28 26 19 17 19 15 8 8 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 87 66 45 34 31 28 19 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -9. -19. -29. -41. -52. -61. -69. -77. -83. -87. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -8. -7. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. -5. -2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 4. 4. 8. 9. 16. 30. 19. -1. -19. -26. -27. -25. -32. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -26. -57. -83. -96.-103.-107.-119.-126. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.5 71.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 14.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 7.9% 3.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 17.2% 7.1% 3.5% 9.6% 4.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.1% 9.7% 5.6% 3.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/21/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 30( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 9( 24) 1( 25) 4( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 115 117 114 113 112 112 112 89 58 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 113 115 112 111 110 110 110 87 56 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 113 110 109 108 108 108 85 54 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 102 101 100 100 100 77 46 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 95 94 94 94 71 40 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 98 97 97 97 74 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 116 115 106 100 96 95 95 95 72 41 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS