* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/21/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 112 111 110 113 112 114 110 115 111 83 58 36 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 112 111 110 113 112 114 110 115 111 83 42 26 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 113 114 115 116 118 113 112 113 78 46 31 33 34 36 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 18 21 13 14 15 11 17 46 48 26 33 21 12 8 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 6 7 4 7 7 9 13 0 4 3 2 0 0 8 6 SHEAR DIR 264 255 260 243 239 234 245 243 204 146 170 175 148 100 148 172 199 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 28.8 27.8 27.3 17.2 15.7 16.2 9.0 8.8 8.1 8.0 5.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 163 165 166 169 152 140 133 76 73 74 66 62 61 64 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 144 145 148 153 139 131 121 72 69 69 64 60 59 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -49.0 -47.5 -46.9 -47.6 -49.1 -48.2 -48.3 -48.7 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.0 4.3 4.1 2.9 2.8 2.2 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 62 64 68 69 63 61 64 57 48 57 70 79 79 75 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 33 33 37 41 44 43 54 60 45 34 24 21 17 10 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 42 37 45 53 30 57 140 225 321 303 265 188 173 137 99 52 200 MB DIV 91 45 45 85 96 46 77 121 115 81 74 119 74 49 36 16 -35 700-850 TADV 8 10 13 13 16 25 40 27 -48 -50 8 5 -16 -12 -5 15 21 LAND (KM) 344 427 511 587 664 931 824 885 571 155 89 -164 289 369 335 467 595 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.7 24.4 25.1 25.8 28.2 30.8 34.5 39.5 44.3 48.7 52.9 56.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.7 71.6 71.6 71.6 70.4 69.0 65.6 61.2 59.7 59.9 59.1 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 10 14 19 27 27 23 22 21 16 6 5 12 17 HEAT CONTENT 85 84 66 49 37 34 19 16 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -22. -33. -42. -50. -58. -67. -73. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -7. -9. -11. -9. -6. -8. -10. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -16. -19. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 14. 28. 37. 16. -0. -16. -19. -23. -31. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. 4. 0. 5. 1. -27. -52. -74. -85. -96.-109.-118. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.9 71.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 14.7% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.6% 6.3% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 12.6% 6.8% 3.4% 7.5% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 9.3% 5.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 13.0% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/21/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/21/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 30( 65) 30( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 36 2( 37) 12( 45) 1( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 112 111 110 113 112 114 110 115 111 83 42 26 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 108 107 110 109 111 107 112 108 80 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 108 107 109 105 110 106 78 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 103 102 104 100 105 101 73 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 90 92 88 93 89 61 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 112 103 97 94 92 94 90 95 91 63 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 110 112 111 102 96 92 94 90 95 91 63 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS