* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/20/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 101 102 106 109 110 113 113 119 102 70 47 32 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 101 102 106 109 110 113 113 119 102 61 34 29 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 101 102 105 108 112 111 109 110 96 57 33 30 33 36 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 18 17 13 19 15 18 32 59 42 36 22 21 15 21 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 5 10 7 6 6 4 9 8 -3 9 3 0 1 3 8 SHEAR DIR 272 253 255 262 239 244 225 256 201 174 156 175 172 155 157 185 198 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.2 27.1 22.0 15.8 14.1 16.4 4.9 7.6 6.3 4.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 163 165 167 159 144 131 92 74 68 71 65 66 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 142 146 147 150 145 133 121 85 70 65 66 N/A 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -49.7 -48.1 -47.8 -47.1 -48.5 -49.3 -49.5 -49.8 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.0 4.9 4.1 3.1 2.8 1.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 65 67 64 62 70 60 48 54 54 65 71 81 75 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 30 31 35 40 42 45 49 62 57 41 31 23 20 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR 26 38 43 50 49 45 16 76 180 274 227 222 215 208 158 170 117 200 MB DIV 92 65 32 65 86 68 67 76 155 101 89 96 93 68 32 -110 -106 700-850 TADV 19 10 8 13 16 23 34 51 -50 -104 -41 -4 -4 -11 -17 -25 -44 LAND (KM) 278 341 403 499 595 800 859 855 749 315 42 -21 -179 99 352 382 341 LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.4 25.2 27.0 29.6 32.6 36.9 42.2 47.5 51.1 52.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.7 71.9 72.1 72.0 71.8 71.0 69.7 67.2 63.7 61.1 59.7 59.2 59.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 9 9 12 16 22 27 28 22 13 12 18 19 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 70 85 87 71 49 31 27 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -14. -21. -29. -36. -44. -49. -55. -58. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -6. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 26. 44. 37. 14. -1. -11. -16. -19. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 13. 13. 19. 2. -30. -53. -68. -80. -87. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 22.3 71.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.3% 9.1% 8.6% 6.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 5.5% 3.1% 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 6.7% 4.3% 4.3% 2.7% 3.2% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 52.0% 42.0% 31.0% 11.0% 14.0% 14.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/20/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 23( 40) 27( 56) 28( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 101 102 106 109 110 113 113 119 102 61 34 29 18 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 99 100 104 107 108 111 111 117 100 59 32 27 16 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 101 104 105 108 108 114 97 56 29 24 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 94 97 98 101 101 107 90 49 22 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 85 88 88 94 77 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 82 83 86 86 92 75 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 101 92 86 82 83 86 86 92 75 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS