* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/20/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 102 103 102 105 108 111 112 118 114 88 62 44 34 24 N/A V (KT) LAND 100 101 102 103 102 105 108 111 112 118 114 88 46 32 25 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 103 105 107 111 113 108 106 108 76 46 31 30 36 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 15 12 20 21 14 18 11 15 50 53 34 24 18 15 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 5 3 7 5 8 13 12 4 4 2 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 272 272 244 251 264 234 234 228 236 191 158 160 175 166 154 153 171 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.9 28.8 27.8 27.3 16.4 16.0 13.1 9.5 7.5 6.9 5.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 157 159 163 164 169 152 139 134 75 72 68 67 66 64 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 141 142 145 148 153 139 130 123 71 67 65 66 65 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -49.0 -47.1 -46.7 -47.3 -48.3 -49.4 -50.1 -48.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 4.2 3.8 3.6 1.9 1.4 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 60 63 63 66 69 60 60 68 50 51 51 58 66 77 84 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 30 30 36 39 41 44 54 59 47 34 25 21 19 12 850 MB ENV VOR 24 27 36 41 46 56 30 40 127 204 289 275 236 210 168 200 147 200 MB DIV 59 90 62 30 60 92 55 74 138 118 66 88 84 44 46 -35 -75 700-850 TADV 22 18 7 8 16 15 26 39 26 -67 -27 -12 2 -12 -9 -20 -15 LAND (KM) 200 267 333 414 496 678 934 853 909 546 109 45 -120 -33 284 406 318 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.9 28.3 30.9 34.5 39.6 45.2 49.3 51.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.2 71.5 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.3 70.2 68.5 65.0 61.5 59.1 58.8 60.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 11 14 19 26 29 25 16 14 19 18 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 62 70 83 87 71 36 34 19 15 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -13. -19. -26. -33. -40. -48. -51. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -8. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 37. 44. 26. 7. -5. -10. -14. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 8. 11. 12. 18. 14. -12. -38. -56. -66. -76. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 21.6 71.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 13.2% 9.1% 8.7% 6.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 9.1% 5.1% 4.9% 2.5% 3.8% 1.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 8.5% 3.5% 1.5% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 8.6% 5.2% 5.3% 3.1% 4.3% 0.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 15.0% 15.0% 14.0% 7.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/20/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 24( 55) 27( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 5( 6) 0( 6) 1( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 102 103 102 105 108 111 112 118 114 88 46 32 25 15 DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 100 101 100 103 106 109 110 116 112 86 44 30 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 97 96 99 102 105 106 112 108 82 40 26 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 92 95 98 99 105 101 75 33 19 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 84 87 90 91 97 93 67 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 84 87 90 91 97 93 67 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 101 102 93 87 83 86 89 90 96 92 66 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS