* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/20/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 104 108 112 114 116 119 116 113 117 112 84 54 36 25 15 V (KT) LAND 95 101 104 108 112 114 116 119 116 113 117 112 72 36 29 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 102 107 111 115 120 120 119 112 107 111 80 48 31 33 37 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 17 11 10 21 20 20 13 16 46 63 36 20 13 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 5 0 7 4 13 17 6 10 11 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 234 239 257 263 245 262 238 243 248 235 196 164 136 157 151 145 330 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 29.0 27.7 27.4 17.5 14.2 11.9 9.9 8.2 5.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 159 160 163 165 168 173 155 138 135 79 71 64 63 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 144 143 145 146 149 156 141 128 124 75 68 62 61 66 68 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -49.2 -46.8 -47.1 -46.2 -46.7 -46.6 -47.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.0 4.3 6.7 4.3 3.7 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 56 60 62 66 69 62 60 69 55 47 52 58 59 74 87 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 27 29 33 36 41 41 42 52 58 46 31 24 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 21 21 33 45 49 23 52 127 206 322 276 282 222 194 218 200 MB DIV 101 81 72 74 60 56 103 93 71 125 126 126 66 67 43 29 -32 700-850 TADV 9 11 11 14 9 15 17 23 36 43 -87 -26 -11 2 -11 -5 16 LAND (KM) 64 165 267 333 400 578 756 916 872 911 587 134 -34 -35 29 293 335 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.3 22.2 22.8 23.4 25.0 26.6 28.8 31.3 34.7 39.7 45.3 51.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 70.6 71.0 71.1 71.3 71.4 70.7 69.8 67.9 64.5 60.6 58.5 58.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 6 7 8 10 13 18 26 29 30 21 8 8 23 30 HEAT CONTENT 66 64 74 84 87 53 36 37 21 15 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -20. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -5. -5. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 19. 21. 34. 42. 24. 3. -7. -10. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 22. 24. 21. 18. 22. 17. -11. -41. -59. -70. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 20.3 70.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.44 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.20 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.9% 26.6% 21.6% 15.2% 8.2% 10.4% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 19.7% 12.5% 8.0% 2.1% 3.3% 3.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 15.9% 9.7% 6.9% 5.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.6% 18.7% 13.6% 9.7% 3.9% 4.8% 4.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 34.0% 30.0% 30.0% 25.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/20/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 26( 39) 30( 57) 30( 70) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 8( 25) 29( 46) 1( 47) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 101 104 108 112 114 116 119 116 113 117 112 72 36 29 19 DIS 18HR AGO 95 94 97 101 105 107 109 112 109 106 110 105 65 29 22 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 95 92 91 95 99 101 103 106 103 100 104 99 59 23 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 89 91 93 96 93 90 94 89 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 95 86 80 77 76 78 80 83 80 77 81 76 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 101 92 86 83 82 84 87 84 81 85 80 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 95 101 104 95 89 85 87 90 87 84 88 83 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS