* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/19/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 93 96 99 106 111 112 116 112 114 104 80 55 41 28 16 V (KT) LAND 85 89 93 96 99 106 111 112 116 112 114 104 64 39 32 25 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 88 91 95 99 108 114 117 114 109 106 93 48 33 30 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 16 18 11 16 13 20 10 20 30 61 74 49 12 14 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 4 2 0 7 3 6 0 18 25 9 6 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 251 238 244 258 262 254 253 252 240 253 236 203 153 123 135 144 247 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.8 28.5 27.5 26.0 16.2 10.0 12.9 6.2 7.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 161 159 159 163 165 168 167 148 136 122 76 65 66 67 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 147 144 143 144 148 150 148 136 128 114 72 63 63 66 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -49.2 -46.6 -46.1 -46.9 -47.0 -47.5 -46.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.1 0.9 1.9 4.9 5.0 4.0 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 59 61 63 67 61 55 60 60 51 58 62 61 66 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 22 23 24 30 35 37 42 41 47 47 41 33 28 24 17 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 25 18 28 40 51 45 34 66 166 302 286 308 222 191 169 200 MB DIV 68 89 66 55 80 52 83 93 85 108 140 78 65 47 27 30 -16 700-850 TADV 8 10 9 16 18 11 22 26 29 37 69 56 -60 -20 1 3 8 LAND (KM) 33 71 150 218 289 456 600 858 888 889 881 444 -72 -13 -61 176 461 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.9 25.2 27.5 29.4 31.8 35.7 41.4 48.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.0 70.4 70.8 71.2 71.3 71.2 70.4 69.5 67.3 63.3 59.5 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 11 13 21 29 36 29 12 10 21 28 HEAT CONTENT 70 67 65 68 76 77 49 36 33 19 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -19. -25. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. -4. -11. -16. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -14. -18. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 17. 24. 22. 30. 30. 20. 8. 1. -5. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 21. 26. 27. 31. 27. 29. 19. -5. -30. -44. -57. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.6 69.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.46 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.28 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 21.5% 16.1% 13.1% 8.3% 11.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 16.9% 10.3% 10.4% 4.7% 5.7% 3.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 7.2% 7.1% 4.1% 4.1% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 10.8% 15.2% 10.2% 9.2% 4.8% 5.9% 4.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 25.0% 71.0% 64.0% 35.0% 22.0% 22.0% 22.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/19/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 14( 23) 21( 39) 27( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 3( 6) 10( 15) 2( 17) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 93 96 99 106 111 112 116 112 114 104 64 39 32 25 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 88 91 94 101 106 107 111 107 109 99 59 34 27 20 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 84 87 94 99 100 104 100 102 92 52 27 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 78 85 90 91 95 91 93 83 43 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 73 78 79 83 79 81 71 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 72 77 78 82 78 80 70 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 89 93 84 78 74 79 80 84 80 82 72 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS