* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/19/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 82 85 89 96 100 104 105 107 104 105 98 72 50 35 22 V (KT) LAND 75 82 86 89 93 100 104 108 109 111 108 109 102 60 37 26 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 81 84 88 97 105 109 107 107 105 100 75 43 32 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 18 20 15 21 13 16 6 19 52 64 65 36 20 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 -2 2 5 4 7 10 14 11 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 253 253 235 249 265 261 273 243 247 226 237 197 174 140 132 131 184 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.1 27.7 27.4 15.0 13.8 10.8 7.5 8.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 160 163 163 163 165 166 167 156 138 136 74 71 67 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 148 150 148 146 147 148 151 144 129 127 71 68 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -48.5 -46.8 -46.5 -46.6 -46.3 -47.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 3.3 5.4 6.9 4.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 61 60 64 64 66 57 56 64 54 44 43 49 63 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 25 28 32 36 38 40 40 47 50 42 34 30 24 850 MB ENV VOR 37 41 43 32 29 38 47 61 31 28 110 194 296 255 268 209 111 200 MB DIV 76 71 78 72 62 73 55 86 76 82 112 109 92 19 29 6 24 700-850 TADV 11 9 9 11 14 10 15 15 27 30 46 -95 -17 -59 -23 -16 24 LAND (KM) -24 11 46 118 190 345 500 690 930 897 927 595 165 43 -1 239 408 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.9 24.3 26.0 28.1 30.8 34.4 39.4 45.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.9 69.3 69.8 70.3 70.8 71.1 71.2 70.6 69.8 68.0 64.8 60.9 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 10 13 19 26 32 29 20 17 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 72 68 66 62 61 83 67 44 38 24 15 29 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. -3. -9. -16. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 21. 21. 30. 33. 20. 8. 2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 10. 14. 21. 25. 29. 30. 32. 29. 30. 23. -3. -25. -40. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.7 68.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 21.3% 14.7% 12.4% 8.3% 11.2% 10.1% 9.9% Logistic: 6.4% 14.4% 7.9% 7.3% 3.6% 6.5% 3.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 12.9% 7.9% 6.8% 4.0% 6.0% 4.4% 3.8% DTOPS: 48.0% 74.0% 63.0% 39.0% 16.0% 30.0% 10.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/19/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 10( 10) 14( 23) 22( 40) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 3( 7) 9( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 86 89 93 100 104 108 109 111 108 109 102 60 37 26 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 78 81 85 92 96 100 101 103 100 101 94 52 29 18 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 74 78 85 89 93 94 96 93 94 87 45 22 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 76 80 84 85 87 84 85 78 36 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 86 77 71 67 71 75 76 78 75 76 69 27 DIS DIS DIS