* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/19/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 90 93 97 103 107 112 110 108 109 106 81 53 35 23 V (KT) LAND 80 68 77 80 84 87 93 97 102 101 99 100 97 56 35 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 69 77 81 85 94 103 109 112 109 104 103 89 45 35 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 13 14 17 14 16 13 17 5 17 36 67 72 43 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 6 6 12 7 9 13 7 14 2 1 SHEAR DIR 248 253 263 245 249 277 263 265 255 203 246 201 176 146 131 145 189 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 28.1 27.6 21.7 15.9 10.0 10.3 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 156 160 163 163 165 165 165 163 143 138 92 76 68 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 145 149 149 146 147 148 148 148 133 131 86 72 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -49.6 -47.5 -46.7 -46.9 -47.8 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.8 3.7 4.5 5.2 3.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 61 59 60 64 65 68 62 58 66 58 52 52 62 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 25 27 32 36 41 41 42 46 53 46 35 29 25 850 MB ENV VOR 38 38 41 45 31 33 35 49 39 20 73 177 267 280 302 205 112 200 MB DIV 81 65 64 85 84 71 54 98 101 89 124 134 83 75 75 37 74 700-850 TADV 7 14 11 10 10 17 12 22 24 28 60 -43 -81 -49 -17 -39 32 LAND (KM) 15 -8 11 53 129 280 433 601 831 960 983 770 382 -34 102 420 640 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.2 20.9 22.3 23.7 25.2 27.2 29.6 32.6 37.1 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.8 69.2 69.7 70.3 70.7 70.9 70.6 69.7 68.3 65.7 62.0 57.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 9 12 16 23 31 32 28 22 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 75 70 68 67 62 72 76 53 38 34 22 26 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 1. -5. -12. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 23. 24. 24. 30. 37. 25. 10. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 23. 27. 32. 30. 28. 29. 26. 1. -27. -45. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.2 68.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 21.3% 15.2% 12.2% 8.2% 10.8% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 16.0% 7.9% 6.1% 3.2% 5.7% 3.8% 2.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 6.2% 2.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 14.5% 8.4% 6.5% 4.0% 5.7% 4.7% 0.7% DTOPS: 7.0% 26.0% 19.0% 7.0% 7.0% 12.0% 16.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/19/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 9( 20) 10( 28) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 9( 14) 9( 21) 17( 35) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 68 77 80 84 87 93 97 102 101 99 100 97 56 35 16 DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 88 91 95 98 104 108 113 112 110 111 108 67 46 27 DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 79 83 86 92 96 101 100 98 99 96 55 34 15 DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 74 77 83 87 92 91 89 90 87 46 25 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT