* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/19/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 85 91 95 101 107 109 112 109 108 101 93 67 72 59 40 V (KT) LAND 75 81 85 91 95 101 107 109 112 109 108 101 93 67 60 47 28 V (KT) LGEM 75 81 85 89 93 100 107 114 116 112 105 97 86 63 47 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 16 18 19 15 23 18 17 9 15 45 56 62 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 4 7 9 10 21 19 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 230 244 257 259 248 262 265 273 241 239 225 252 200 178 160 173 218 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 28.8 27.5 27.1 14.7 10.1 10.6 10.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 156 158 161 163 165 165 168 167 152 136 132 75 69 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 145 144 146 148 147 147 147 150 150 139 128 124 73 68 64 62 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -48.8 -46.0 -45.0 -45.8 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.1 1.0 2.7 4.7 4.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 59 60 58 63 66 64 57 61 70 56 53 55 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 21 22 25 30 34 39 41 43 42 41 30 45 43 34 850 MB ENV VOR 45 34 34 38 45 26 43 46 55 31 39 90 178 297 336 226 195 200 MB DIV 88 84 65 61 79 67 62 81 79 54 95 92 87 80 117 69 45 700-850 TADV 4 8 11 13 11 13 11 13 19 23 34 83 2 -78 -23 14 -6 LAND (KM) 63 9 29 57 99 246 400 544 767 914 923 921 571 54 112 453 649 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.6 22.0 23.4 24.7 26.7 28.9 31.1 34.9 40.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.8 68.3 68.9 69.4 69.9 70.7 71.1 71.0 70.7 69.7 67.4 63.9 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 11 13 19 28 32 33 26 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 71 68 69 68 65 68 83 58 38 36 20 15 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -3. -8. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -14. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 23. 25. 28. 26. 24. 8. 25. 20. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 16. 20. 26. 32. 34. 37. 34. 33. 26. 18. -8. -3. -16. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.1 67.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 27.4% 38.2% 27.9% 21.7% 16.7% 13.6% 11.5% 11.3% Logistic: 14.8% 32.2% 20.4% 18.6% 8.5% 10.7% 5.6% 2.7% Bayesian: 8.3% 17.3% 8.0% 5.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 16.8% 29.3% 18.8% 15.2% 9.3% 8.4% 5.9% 4.7% DTOPS: 30.0% 44.0% 24.0% 20.0% 6.0% 27.0% 10.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/19/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/19/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 17( 29) 23( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 81 85 91 95 101 107 109 112 109 108 101 93 67 60 47 28 18HR AGO 75 74 78 84 88 94 100 102 105 102 101 94 86 60 53 40 21 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 81 87 93 95 98 95 94 87 79 53 46 33 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 75 81 83 86 83 82 75 67 41 34 21 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 81 85 76 70 66 72 74 77 74 73 66 58 32 25 DIS DIS