* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/18/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 91 95 98 103 109 108 109 105 100 96 78 55 52 38 V (KT) LAND 75 82 87 91 95 98 103 109 108 109 105 100 96 78 48 41 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 88 91 93 99 106 112 115 115 110 101 88 71 46 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 17 20 20 18 14 16 16 24 13 14 33 63 80 40 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 -2 -1 1 -2 1 1 1 10 19 22 2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 245 233 249 262 269 252 265 263 269 253 238 238 222 205 187 162 201 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 27.9 27.5 25.2 16.3 10.2 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 156 154 156 163 163 165 166 166 164 140 136 113 76 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 148 144 142 144 150 146 146 147 149 148 128 125 103 72 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -49.4 -47.4 -46.0 -47.2 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.1 0.6 1.6 3.7 4.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 57 61 61 63 64 65 56 54 61 57 58 58 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 35 40 41 41 42 37 29 36 31 850 MB ENV VOR 48 48 40 34 45 37 28 37 47 40 33 60 144 249 247 197 131 200 MB DIV 70 99 80 69 55 100 74 73 129 91 128 103 118 74 85 78 39 700-850 TADV 5 4 9 13 17 13 14 14 20 23 11 56 1 -14 -28 -20 -6 LAND (KM) 13 32 24 39 57 177 336 478 657 884 895 898 739 367 -65 149 358 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.8 21.3 22.8 24.1 25.7 27.7 30.0 33.2 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.5 68.1 68.6 69.1 69.9 70.6 70.9 70.6 70.0 68.8 66.4 62.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 9 12 16 22 27 30 28 20 16 HEAT CONTENT 71 68 67 67 67 65 77 67 47 38 31 19 26 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -6. -14. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 18. 25. 26. 25. 25. 16. 5. 12. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 28. 34. 33. 34. 30. 25. 21. 3. -19. -23. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.8 66.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 10.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.54 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.0% 43.6% 30.1% 25.9% 19.3% 17.6% 11.7% 12.5% Logistic: 29.0% 43.1% 28.9% 30.2% 16.4% 22.1% 13.8% 4.7% Bayesian: 25.5% 17.6% 7.4% 4.4% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% Consensus: 29.9% 34.8% 22.1% 20.2% 12.6% 13.5% 8.8% 5.7% DTOPS: 30.0% 39.0% 23.0% 16.0% 6.0% 18.0% 15.0% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/18/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 17( 29) 21( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 5( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 82 87 91 95 98 103 109 108 109 105 100 96 78 48 41 27 18HR AGO 75 74 79 83 87 90 95 101 100 101 97 92 88 70 40 33 19 12HR AGO 75 72 71 75 79 82 87 93 92 93 89 84 80 62 32 25 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 69 72 77 83 82 83 79 74 70 52 22 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 82 87 78 72 68 73 79 78 79 75 70 66 48 18 DIS DIS