* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/18/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 74 79 87 91 98 103 103 103 101 97 88 64 65 49 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 74 79 87 91 98 103 103 103 101 97 88 64 50 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 76 84 92 101 106 108 107 102 93 81 65 48 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 15 19 14 18 11 15 18 19 14 15 59 74 42 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 4 2 0 0 0 1 5 2 0 0 15 35 8 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 261 246 238 255 268 254 271 282 280 253 255 236 235 216 185 142 202 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 28.8 27.6 27.3 14.2 9.9 8.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 159 157 156 158 163 162 165 166 167 152 137 135 75 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 148 146 144 145 148 145 147 148 151 139 127 127 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.4 -47.8 -45.4 -44.5 -44.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.9 3.6 3.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 57 60 62 62 64 66 64 56 56 65 51 57 57 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 23 26 28 33 37 39 42 43 43 44 37 48 41 850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 54 39 38 46 29 42 44 50 37 42 120 246 268 353 266 200 MB DIV 71 97 115 96 56 73 70 80 95 125 105 87 108 92 76 114 90 700-850 TADV 8 4 3 5 14 13 8 9 16 16 17 20 74 -20 -26 -39 2 LAND (KM) 100 40 11 47 36 92 220 359 515 718 967 917 944 619 85 207 712 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.0 20.2 21.7 23.0 24.4 26.2 28.4 31.2 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.1 66.7 67.3 67.8 68.4 69.2 70.0 70.5 70.4 70.0 69.4 67.4 64.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 10 14 19 26 33 36 36 36 HEAT CONTENT 88 75 69 66 66 67 66 77 61 45 38 21 15 17 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 11. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -6. -14. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -13. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 19. 22. 26. 26. 25. 24. 13. 25. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 27. 31. 38. 43. 43. 43. 41. 37. 28. 4. 5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.1 66.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 36.9% 26.5% 19.6% 11.7% 18.9% 12.2% 14.6% Logistic: 7.6% 22.4% 9.9% 9.0% 4.9% 12.1% 9.4% 6.4% Bayesian: 7.3% 7.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 10.2% 22.2% 12.7% 9.6% 5.6% 10.7% 7.6% 7.1% DTOPS: 18.0% 51.0% 27.0% 21.0% 10.0% 22.0% 10.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/18/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 7( 11) 10( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 1( 4) 10( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 74 79 87 91 98 103 103 103 101 97 88 64 50 34 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 73 81 85 92 97 97 97 95 91 82 58 44 28 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 65 73 77 84 89 89 89 87 83 74 50 36 20 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 63 67 74 79 79 79 77 73 64 40 26 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT