* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/18/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 64 70 80 88 93 100 101 107 105 101 92 88 58 51 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 64 62 78 86 91 98 99 105 103 99 91 86 57 44 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 58 63 69 78 89 99 105 107 106 101 91 80 61 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 15 14 10 10 13 10 16 13 17 17 19 19 19 42 76 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 2 5 4 2 1 0 0 3 0 4 -2 9 33 0 6 SHEAR DIR 244 257 272 262 244 266 257 281 275 285 266 249 234 218 208 179 150 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 28.9 27.6 27.4 15.3 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 161 159 156 157 163 162 165 166 167 154 137 135 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 151 149 144 144 148 145 146 148 153 142 128 125 73 71 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -48.3 -46.4 -47.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.3 2.2 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 58 56 61 62 63 66 65 66 57 52 55 47 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 21 22 25 27 30 35 37 43 45 45 43 45 32 37 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 43 52 54 46 49 39 54 54 68 54 49 93 219 317 226 200 MB DIV 70 57 63 106 98 63 100 69 92 91 114 95 108 100 119 134 78 700-850 TADV -2 6 6 5 4 13 10 13 7 9 16 18 11 36 -32 -39 -93 LAND (KM) 219 153 100 44 0 36 92 197 337 480 658 912 921 916 633 204 153 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.0 19.0 20.2 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.7 27.9 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.7 65.3 65.9 66.5 67.2 68.4 69.2 70.1 70.5 70.6 70.4 69.4 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 10 14 20 26 30 33 34 HEAT CONTENT 81 94 89 75 69 66 67 65 76 65 48 39 22 15 20 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 24. 23. 21. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -4. -11. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 21. 30. 31. 30. 24. 26. 9. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 30. 38. 43. 50. 51. 57. 55. 51. 42. 38. 8. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.4 64.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 32.8% 22.7% 13.0% 8.3% 19.2% 27.5% 21.0% Logistic: 7.8% 25.3% 14.4% 10.6% 4.6% 8.1% 9.0% 6.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 11.3% 3.8% 0.5% 0.6% 1.8% 2.1% 0.3% Consensus: 6.2% 23.1% 13.6% 8.0% 4.5% 9.7% 12.9% 9.1% DTOPS: 9.0% 38.0% 27.0% 14.0% 7.0% 62.0% 68.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/18/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 64 62 78 86 91 98 99 105 103 99 91 86 57 44 18HR AGO 50 49 54 59 57 73 81 86 93 94 100 98 94 86 81 52 39 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 49 65 73 78 85 86 92 90 86 78 73 44 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 54 62 67 74 75 81 79 75 67 62 33 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT