* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/17/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 60 64 69 77 84 88 93 96 95 98 99 97 90 85 77 V (KT) LAND 50 54 60 64 69 77 84 88 93 96 95 98 99 97 90 85 77 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 57 60 68 76 84 93 98 100 100 99 95 87 73 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 11 15 16 12 14 12 18 17 21 21 20 28 23 33 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 0 1 1 5 2 0 2 1 0 0 -3 -5 10 7 SHEAR DIR 277 272 240 255 277 256 276 257 273 265 272 252 262 231 253 259 253 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.9 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 159 159 159 161 156 157 162 162 165 165 168 165 152 135 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 151 150 149 151 144 143 146 145 147 147 150 148 134 117 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 56 57 58 61 63 64 67 66 65 55 46 38 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 19 23 26 30 33 35 39 42 44 41 42 43 850 MB ENV VOR 31 35 38 35 43 58 50 52 37 53 67 86 74 86 20 -61 -31 200 MB DIV 54 52 69 45 86 95 59 86 81 54 73 71 80 61 -6 -1 -25 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -4 0 3 8 16 9 10 6 9 9 7 -3 -7 -70 -64 LAND (KM) 358 273 195 135 100 39 5 47 143 259 389 556 769 934 859 871 727 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.8 18.8 19.9 21.0 22.1 23.3 24.8 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.1 64.0 64.8 65.5 66.2 67.5 68.6 69.5 70.0 70.5 70.9 70.9 70.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 13 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 55 67 86 94 87 74 69 67 64 70 80 56 39 36 21 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 24. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 20. 24. 27. 27. 23. 22. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 27. 34. 38. 43. 46. 45. 48. 49. 47. 40. 35. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.2 63.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 43.8% 28.8% 20.7% 16.9% 27.8% 28.5% 19.8% Logistic: 29.3% 45.9% 35.7% 32.6% 17.8% 18.7% 15.4% 8.3% Bayesian: 6.2% 23.2% 13.8% 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% Consensus: 16.6% 37.6% 26.1% 18.7% 12.6% 16.4% 15.1% 9.5% DTOPS: 9.0% 52.0% 21.0% 7.0% 5.0% 11.0% 3.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/17/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 5( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 60 64 69 77 84 88 93 96 95 98 99 97 90 85 77 18HR AGO 50 49 55 59 64 72 79 83 88 91 90 93 94 92 85 80 72 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 55 63 70 74 79 82 81 84 85 83 76 71 63 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 53 60 64 69 72 71 74 75 73 66 61 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT