* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/17/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 63 68 74 79 87 93 95 102 103 101 98 94 91 91 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 63 68 74 79 52 59 61 68 69 67 64 60 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 62 70 78 53 61 72 83 89 88 83 79 76 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 8 10 15 8 11 8 16 17 21 22 29 22 28 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 -1 0 0 6 1 6 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 260 265 239 219 241 251 262 268 270 265 266 260 262 247 235 214 242 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 162 163 165 166 163 160 160 164 164 164 165 165 168 156 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 156 155 156 156 156 151 147 145 148 146 146 146 146 147 136 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 2 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 56 55 59 59 62 62 63 64 63 53 45 37 39 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 17 17 18 19 20 26 30 33 39 41 42 43 43 42 46 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 32 38 38 50 54 61 51 66 82 105 111 99 82 -9 -47 200 MB DIV 56 45 54 58 69 71 80 89 91 84 59 88 62 33 35 0 -29 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -6 2 7 12 13 12 7 6 10 5 0 0 -2 -52 LAND (KM) 379 278 186 124 91 92 0 -15 56 167 287 416 560 738 833 734 747 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.6 18.4 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.4 23.6 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.8 64.8 65.7 66.6 68.0 69.1 70.0 70.9 71.5 71.9 72.0 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 53 65 86 96 92 89 78 67 54 56 71 90 60 35 39 31 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 7. 12. 15. 24. 27. 27. 25. 23. 20. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 24. 29. 37. 43. 45. 52. 53. 51. 48. 44. 41. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 62.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.3% 43.3% 28.7% 21.7% 17.2% 29.6% 29.7% 25.8% Logistic: 16.3% 35.8% 27.0% 26.3% 11.7% 20.0% 11.6% 6.3% Bayesian: 7.5% 16.3% 9.7% 1.6% 0.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.7% Consensus: 12.7% 31.8% 21.8% 16.5% 9.8% 18.0% 14.6% 10.9% DTOPS: 8.0% 39.0% 27.0% 12.0% 4.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/17/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 59 63 68 74 79 52 59 61 68 69 67 64 60 57 57 18HR AGO 50 49 54 58 63 69 74 47 54 56 63 64 62 59 55 52 52 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 55 61 66 39 46 48 55 56 54 51 47 44 44 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 51 56 29 36 38 45 46 44 41 37 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT