* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/16/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 44 46 51 56 63 71 78 88 93 95 92 84 81 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 44 46 51 56 38 42 49 59 63 65 62 55 51 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 42 42 42 43 45 34 36 42 48 55 60 61 56 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 15 9 16 15 15 12 19 14 21 21 33 33 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 0 -1 0 0 0 3 0 4 3 3 0 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 270 262 261 277 267 259 270 263 262 253 260 263 259 248 226 218 215 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 163 162 167 165 164 160 161 164 162 163 166 166 171 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 157 157 158 157 158 154 151 146 146 148 143 143 145 146 149 145 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 52 55 55 56 57 61 62 66 66 66 67 64 56 48 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 14 14 13 13 14 16 20 24 30 34 38 40 37 36 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 18 23 24 32 36 40 47 49 51 70 104 124 110 50 -43 200 MB DIV 8 5 33 34 48 38 68 78 100 108 110 62 93 58 12 13 11 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -6 -5 -5 -4 2 3 11 15 8 5 10 6 4 0 -3 LAND (KM) 605 486 370 252 138 57 46 0 -60 44 178 278 349 433 534 649 693 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.2 20.2 21.4 22.4 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 61.5 62.7 63.8 65.0 66.9 68.4 69.5 70.4 71.3 72.0 72.6 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 8 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 58 53 52 66 89 89 86 73 58 48 53 62 73 83 77 59 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 7. 14. 19. 22. 23. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 6. 11. 18. 26. 33. 43. 48. 50. 47. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.3 60.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.0% 6.3% 6.1% 4.7% 8.6% 10.0% 15.2% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 2.4% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.6% 3.1% 4.1% 6.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/16/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 44 46 51 56 38 42 49 59 63 65 62 55 51 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 44 46 51 56 38 42 49 59 63 65 62 55 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 44 49 54 36 40 47 57 61 63 60 53 49 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 38 43 48 30 34 41 51 55 57 54 47 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT