* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/15/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 50 52 55 58 60 65 70 73 77 78 81 V (KT) LAND 45 47 47 48 49 48 50 52 55 58 49 60 65 68 72 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 51 51 52 51 52 54 55 48 54 58 61 62 63 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 16 18 17 19 18 18 17 20 18 24 24 29 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 0 1 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 1 -1 2 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 253 267 272 273 279 300 291 300 276 280 261 264 257 276 267 254 248 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 148 151 158 164 166 167 161 161 166 166 169 167 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 142 145 143 148 154 159 159 157 149 148 153 152 153 149 144 140 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 52 53 52 54 54 55 58 57 59 59 58 58 61 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 15 16 15 15 14 15 15 15 17 20 22 26 28 33 850 MB ENV VOR 3 1 -2 0 -1 7 7 18 35 40 42 43 51 43 46 71 92 200 MB DIV 29 13 27 36 25 19 17 16 41 53 58 41 57 33 51 81 27 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -6 -7 -5 -3 -2 0 6 5 7 5 6 5 5 4 LAND (KM) 1130 1029 937 856 791 610 350 137 30 61 -3 11 111 256 413 537 630 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.9 19.8 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.6 54.9 56.1 57.4 60.1 62.6 64.7 66.5 67.9 68.9 69.9 71.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 10 8 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 36 43 55 67 54 80 80 80 80 82 60 64 77 72 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. -0. 4. 5. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 33. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 52.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/15/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.2% 8.1% 7.7% 5.5% 9.2% 9.7% 12.8% Logistic: 1.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 3.2% 4.0% 5.2% Bayesian: 2.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.6% 3.2% 2.8% 1.9% 4.3% 5.0% 6.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/15/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/15/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 47 48 49 48 50 52 55 58 49 60 65 68 72 73 76 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 46 45 47 49 52 55 46 57 62 65 69 70 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 42 44 46 49 52 43 54 59 62 66 67 70 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 35 37 39 42 45 36 47 52 55 59 60 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT