* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072022 09/15/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 52 53 54 55 56 57 55 56 53 57 57 61 60 63 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 52 53 54 55 56 57 53 44 36 43 44 47 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 56 57 58 57 57 56 53 44 36 39 40 39 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 19 17 23 17 23 21 25 22 26 25 33 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 3 1 -4 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 248 259 269 267 269 286 289 296 272 275 263 264 242 266 260 280 270 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 144 148 148 154 161 166 165 162 163 166 166 167 167 166 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 139 144 144 150 157 159 157 153 152 151 152 152 150 143 139 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 51 52 55 53 56 59 61 61 67 67 74 77 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 14 13 13 14 14 12 12 10 10 8 10 9 12 11 15 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 2 -2 0 7 8 4 21 25 32 14 27 8 23 17 25 200 MB DIV 39 30 5 34 34 18 30 2 28 46 65 55 61 59 77 57 91 700-850 TADV -8 -4 -6 -8 -7 -6 -9 -5 -6 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 2 2 10 LAND (KM) 1238 1152 1071 968 877 743 481 239 48 32 -33 -16 92 256 450 591 678 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.6 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.4 52.4 53.4 54.8 56.1 58.7 61.3 63.6 65.5 67.5 69.3 70.4 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 7 6 7 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 26 33 41 61 61 67 74 77 80 71 65 68 79 60 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 24. 27. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -15. -12. -13. -10. -11. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 10. 11. 8. 12. 12. 16. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.9 51.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 SEVEN 09/15/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.3% 8.8% 8.2% 5.7% 9.3% 10.1% 12.7% Logistic: 2.0% 5.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% Bayesian: 5.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.5% 2.1% 5.1% 5.8% 6.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 SEVEN 09/15/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 SEVEN 09/15/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 52 53 54 55 56 57 53 44 36 43 44 47 46 49 18HR AGO 45 44 47 47 48 49 50 51 52 48 39 31 38 39 42 41 44 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 43 44 45 46 42 33 25 32 33 36 35 38 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 37 38 39 40 36 27 19 26 27 30 29 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT