* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/10/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 65 55 47 40 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 65 55 47 40 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 65 57 50 46 41 41 43 48 54 57 56 54 50 47 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 34 30 25 22 9 4 5 4 3 8 16 19 23 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 4 1 1 -1 -4 -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 198 188 198 196 171 196 177 190 288 313 321 313 301 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 22.0 21.6 21.1 21.0 21.1 20.3 18.4 19.7 22.6 22.8 21.6 21.6 20.6 18.0 16.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 84 80 78 79 77 73 77 89 90 84 83 80 74 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 72 69 67 67 67 66 69 76 76 72 71 70 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -48.3 -48.6 -48.7 -48.8 -48.9 -49.2 -49.4 -50.1 -50.7 -51.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.8 3.5 2.6 2.8 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 53 54 56 58 64 70 71 68 67 65 64 62 57 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 50 45 42 40 37 34 31 28 25 25 23 21 20 19 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 226 229 228 239 235 241 259 235 202 180 147 115 94 54 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 -20 28 30 34 29 27 24 9 -5 0 12 32 34 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -12 -18 -9 -3 -2 -4 -7 -7 -2 0 9 13 14 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 378 311 251 254 258 241 330 501 681 865 1037 1146 1221 1395 1458 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.3 44.0 44.6 44.7 44.7 45.1 45.1 45.0 45.1 45.2 45.3 45.8 46.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.8 52.3 51.9 51.6 51.4 51.0 49.5 47.1 44.6 42.1 39.7 38.0 36.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 4 2 2 3 7 8 9 9 8 6 9 12 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -25. -33. -39. -45. -49. -53. -56. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -0. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -22. -30. -36. -38. -43. -47. -49. -47. -48. -46. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -20. -28. -35. -44. -55. -66. -74. -76. -80. -84. -90. -96.-103.-104.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 43.3 52.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/10/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 65 55 47 40 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 64 56 49 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 63 56 47 36 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 58 49 38 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT