* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EARL AL062022 09/10/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 61 52 45 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 72 61 52 45 33 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 71 61 53 47 41 39 40 45 52 56 56 53 47 42 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 37 34 32 22 18 10 4 6 3 5 15 20 27 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 3 1 3 -1 -6 -4 -6 -7 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 207 192 184 198 199 159 184 179 193 290 313 323 324 323 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 21.9 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.5 19.7 18.1 22.2 23.2 22.0 21.4 21.7 19.3 17.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 86 83 81 80 77 76 73 87 92 86 83 85 78 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 75 72 70 69 66 67 66 75 78 73 71 73 70 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.3 -48.2 -48.6 -48.7 -48.5 -48.9 -49.1 -49.5 -50.2 -51.1 -51.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.3 3.2 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 53 53 54 62 65 70 68 65 63 57 58 62 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 50 50 46 42 40 35 32 28 26 25 23 22 18 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 187 221 232 247 245 242 254 246 226 192 153 115 87 28 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 33 -17 21 25 18 25 49 18 -11 0 4 27 27 24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 -13 -18 -17 -5 -1 0 -6 -9 -2 0 5 8 19 16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 478 385 299 276 258 265 292 421 615 794 948 1097 1229 1386 1513 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.4 43.3 44.1 44.4 44.7 45.0 45.1 45.2 44.9 45.1 45.5 45.7 45.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 52.7 52.1 51.8 51.4 50.7 50.1 48.1 45.6 43.1 40.8 38.7 36.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 10 6 4 4 2 5 8 9 9 8 7 8 13 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 30 CX,CY: 13/ 27 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -27. -36. -44. -50. -54. -59. -62. -66. -67. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -7. -4. -1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -21. -30. -35. -38. -43. -46. -51. -54. -58. -55. -53. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -19. -28. -35. -47. -58. -69. -76. -78. -82. -85. -94.-106.-118.-118.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 42.4 53.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062022 EARL 09/10/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062022 EARL 09/10/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 0( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 72 61 52 45 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 68 59 52 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 67 60 48 37 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 63 51 40 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT